“Every Dog Has His Day” -Tony Montana Scarface (1983)
362 days ago, the Montana State Bobcats came into Schoenecker Arena to face the then 4-5 U of St. Thomas team coming off a loss at the always formidable Drake Bulldogs. This Season, the Tommies return to Montana at 7-3, with an upper tier Summit League Squad.
Areas of Improvement vs Last Season:
Conference play has not yet started, but there is a large enough sample size to see the major areas of improvement between those two squads.
Scoring Balance is a big part of the reason for this year’s early success. UST, last season, was 5th in the country at 3 point rate. It did not take many teams long to figure out that if they could contest the perimeter, that was the Achilles Heel. In the first 9 games last season, UST needed to force threes at a blistering pace in order to be competitive. The Tommies scored 13+ triples in all but one of their games in that span. Their early games saw them attempting as many as 40 3 pointers a game. UST is now shooting the 3 point ball 44% of the time, not because they have to, but because that is the best shot they are presented with. They are rewarded this season with a significant increase in their 3pt% by not forcing those long range contested shots.
Shot Quality across the board is another key factor leading to this improvement. Especially on UST’s bench there are players who are making the most of their minutes by playing efficiently. Dufault with a 72.4% FG%, CB2 at 57.1, Kendall Blue at 46.9. Continuing to be in the top ten team in the country in effective FG% is likely unsustainable, but as long as the team is shooting this well, the rest of their teams on the schedule are beatable.
The Slam Dunk being a newfound feature of the offense is not having an effect both in terms of morale, but important guaranteed scoring. Last season UST had 18 dunk attempts all season. Going into the game tonight (9 games) they are already at 18. Finally, the incremental improvements on defense can be almost wholly attributed to having the right (taller) personnel in place to run the defense.
Up Next
@ Montana State Bobcats 12/8 8:00 CST
The Bobcats made the NCAA tournament last season as a 14 seed, and are the favorite to represent Big Sky conference again. RaeQuan Battle and Jubrile Belo return on a team that likely considers themselves to have underperformed this early in the season. They are 4-5 with their best win coming against Long Beach State 70-57 about a month ago. I am sure similar to last season they are going to be looking to win inside, as their three point shooting leaves something to be desired. Belo and Great Osobor are major rebounding threats, and their matchup vs Lee, Allen, and/or Bjorklund will be fun to watch. Their tallest guy is 6-9, so the height disparity this season will not be as pronounced as it was last season. Xavier Bishop who dropped 20 on UST last season has also graduated.
UST has already played in the altitude of Montana this year, it should not take them long to find the same shooting strategy that helped them beat Troy. I predict an upset.
@ Idaho State Sat 12/10 7:00 CST
With that said, Idaho State is the more likely win this trip. Montana State was picked to finish first, Idaho State was tabbed as the last place finisher. The Bengals took care of UMKC on November 29th 75-65, and played on Tuesday against Montana Western, an NAIA school and won 61-53. They have Grad Sharpshooter Brock Mackenzie, from Point Loma Nazarene University, where he was all conference in their D-2 League. Idaho State is an experienced group, and as a group they have already experience 2 OT losses back to back against Lindenwood and Bethune Cookman. Earlier this year they also played Utah closer than UST did, losing by 12, and barely lost to Denver 70-69. Idaho State will be a good measuring stick to see how UST will fare against the middle of the SL pack.
Predictions:
UST-72 Montana State-69
UST-68 Idaho State-63
Plus 3
1.) Milwaukee since the UST lost has gone on a tear, winning 5 of their last six games, their only loss was the 2022 NCAA tournament participant Chattanooga. That win may end up looking better and better as the season progresses.
2.) Conference basketball begins in 11 days, woah.
3.) According to plus/minus–Kendall Blue at +34, is good for 3rd best in the conference behind Lukic and Bruner of Denver. EvanMiya.com has a ranking of players by value to their own teams. UST’s Brooks Allen is rated as the 5th most valuable team player, behind Appel, Massner, Vanover, and Abmas.
#RollToms