With the Summit League tournament starting on Friday, it has now come time to figure out what types of teams have won this tournament in the past.
Have the most efficient offense
Over the last 15 or so seasons, if your offensive efficiency, as measured in tempo adjusted points per 100 possessions, led the league, then congrats, you probably will win in Sioux Falls. Defense apparently does not matter as much. For instance, the 2017 champs, the Jackrabbits Sophomore Mike Daum team, had a very efficient offense, but also let up an enormous number of points for how fast they played. Denver, because you have the best offense, you have a shot if history is a guide. Double points if you have the best ranked offense and defense. If a team has that trait it should be no surprise that you almost certainly will win, as was the case in 2023 with ORU, 2022 with the Jacks, and 2014 with the Bison, who were the best on both ends.
Have “The Guy”, a top scorer with more than 15 ppg
This is similar to the first one, over the last 20 years you almost need a top guy who averages at least 15 during the season. The exception is Vinnie Shahid who was the 2019 Champion NDSU’s leading scorer, and he only averaged 13.5, but even still averaged around 19 ppg in Sioux Falls. The double points for this category is if you have the best scorer in the league. Apparently the Summit League/MCC tournament puts their main scoring star on a pedestal in Sioux Falls, as the highest scorer in the conference has cut down the nets 60% of the time over the last 20 years. This category of top guys with 15+ ppg makes eligible UMKC, UND, SDSU, Omaha, ORU, USD, and once again strong “winning indicator” favorite Denver as the eligible teams in this category. As far as UST is concerned for my loyal Tommies readers, I am hoping that depth starts to win the day in this league or alternatively somebody catches fire in Sioux Falls.
Win 10 games at home, or more during the regular season.
No Summit League team has cut down the nets over the last 15+ seasons years has won without winning 10 at home (excluding the goofy covid year). Every team but UND, ORU, and USD has gotten to the double digit home win total this season. We have to go back to 2005, the MCC Days, to find a team with less than 10 wins that has won the tournament.
Bottom Line to win in Sioux Falls:
*Captain Obvious* You have to score more points than the other team! Teams that win games, win games.
The Summit League tournament rewards star players and teams that play entertaining basketball. Onward to Friday, where my theory will be put to the test for the first time. With that in mind, I pick ORU over USD. McBride+Bedford over Stewart and Lahat.