The University of St. Thomas basketball team picked up their first road conference wins over the last week, which has catapulted them to 4th place. However, the two tests this week in St Paul will be important to measure their growth over the course of the conference schedule in the place where they have played their best.
St. Thomas (16-10) vs Oral Roberts (21-4) Thur. Feb. 9 2023
Oral Roberts is a juggernaut this conference season on par with the South Dakota State team of last year. They can regularly hang 90-100 in regulation on conference teams. Unfortunately for St. Thomas they consistently get better the second time around against SL teams. For example, their first game with Kansas City they won by 3, on Saturday they won by 28. They beat Denver by 18 the first go, and 41 the next. The only team that has given them a lot of trouble recently was Omaha, and yet they were able to beat them by nine. They are a team that has proven they can go the distance strong.
Oral Roberts on the offensive end is incredibly efficient. Their starting five averages 49.4% from the field. UST will not match up defensive to keep up with their level of scoring in order to beat them. If UST is going to win they are going to once again have to use pace to their advantage. Oral Roberts is comparable to UST in Turnover percentage, which are both very low, any additional possessions UST can find will be important.
Last Game, UST shot 33 3’s making 12. ORU shot 23 3’s, focusing their production to the paint where they went 17-21. ORU also went to the line that game to shoot 18, and they only made 13. I will be excited to see how UST tries to find answers for 7-5 Conor Vanover and the always prolific scoring from the likely Summit POY Max Abmas. If I had to guess (always risky) based on their shot chart, it would be that UST tries to force Abmas and their other scorers out of the corners where they are red hot, and to clog up the paint to negate the physically large presence of Conor Vanover. Even with that, it is hard to find points on the court where Oral Roberts isn’t comfortable scoring. UST on the other end is going to need huge games out of everybody from the three point line.
St. Thomas vs Kansas City Saturday Feb. 11, 2023
Last time around, the Roos found St. Thomas having a night where they were just off. Rohde+Riley went a combined 2-12 from 3. UST allowed their stud RayQuawndis Mitchel to have 29 which was what pushed them to their 21 point victory, 81-60. Since that win, they have gone 3-4 only averaging 63 points per game.
Strangely for Kansas City is that a huge portion of their offensive production has come on second chances. They have one of the worst effective FG%’s in the country, yet have a top ten offensive rebounding percentage. Being strong on the glass will be critical for a victory in this game. Ideally, UST hones in their 3 point shooting against ORU, and has their shot figured out to put away Kansas City in what will undoubtedly be a physical matchup.
The player to watch out for in this game other than Mr Mitchel is Shemarri Allen, who over his last five games is averaging 22 points per game. He is playing a lot, and playing well. He has been playing well on the defensive end as well forcing steals, and contesting shots.
Plus 3
1.) Parker Bjorklund’s ability to shoot the long ball has been decisive in recent matchups. In conference play he is averaging 41%. It is very impressive to see him make 5-7 from long range in multiple games. He had 6 3 point shots against oral roberts last time. If he can continue to find that shot as frequently as he has, it makes UST a much more dangerous team, as it will increase the space that his teammates have to work with because they will have to defend him strong at the perimeter.
2.) With 5 games to go in the Summit League, UST is in a favorable spot. They are likely going to be favored in at least 3 games, UMKC, WIU, and UND. I think 4-1 is doable, which would mean UST would avoid the first day of the SLT.
3.) It is already great to see the results of the new stadium announcement on attendance all around UST Venues. Sellouts at Hockey+Hoops games is a good sign, I expect that the upcoming games against ORU+UMKC will be well attended as well, contributing to UST going on a bit of a roll at home.
#RollToms
Predictions:
ORU-81 UST-71
UST-67 UMKC-59