Oral Roberts will tip-off against Ohio State 2 pm central time on national television on CBS. This means even those without the requisite cable providers will get to see the Golden Eagles first-hand. As is any 15 seed ORU is a large underdog by vegas standards as Ohio State is favored by 16. It’s safe to say that an Oral Roberts win would be the first Cinderella moment of this year’s NCAA tournament.
Getting to know Ohio State
We have spent plenty of time discussing Oral Roberts on this website so I am going to give you a bit more on the Buckeyes of Ohio State. The Buckeyes are led by Sophomore big man EJ Liddell. After a relatively quiet freshmen season, Liddell blossomed in year 2. Averaging 15.9 points and 6.4 rebounds on the season. Liddell also contributes on the defensive end where he averaged .7 steals and 1.1 blocks on the season. The Buckeyes leading scorer is Duane Washington, who averaged 16.3 points per game this season. Washington is a dangerous outside shooter. Three other players who are major contributors for Ohio state are Justice Sueing (10.9 points 5.6 rebounds), CJ Walker (9.4 points 4.4 assists), and Kyle Young (8.6 points 5.5 rebounds). The Buckeyes have high-level athletes and are one of the most efficient offenses in college basketball. They have been through plenty of tests in an extremely challenging Big 10, so it’s unlikely Ohio State will get rattled on the big stage. So all signs point to a Buckeyes win, but I won’t ever count out a team with Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor.
The similarities
I was listening to an analysis of this game and kept finding the similarities of these two teams interesting. The conversation basically was saying how lucky Ohio State was to get a team in the first round that lacked size, Ohio State consistently battled teams bigger than them during Big 10 play. I started thinking the other way in this matchup, Oral Roberts as a 15 seed was almost guaranteed to be overmatched by I size of their 2 seed opponent but is playing a team they match up with pretty well size-wise. So here are some ways these two teams are very similar.
- Size: Ohio State’s 3 tallest starters are 6-8 (Young), 6-7 (Liddell), and 6-7 (Sueing). Oral Roberts 6-8 (Kevin Obanor), 6-7 (Francis Lacis), and 6-6 (Kareem Thompson). Ohio State consistently brings in more size 6-6 and above so it will be a challenge for ORU to match-up depth-wise.
- explosive offenses: Two of the highest-rated offenses in NCAA basketball will match up Friday afternoon. Ohio State is 11 in the NCAA in ORtg, and averages 77 points per game. Oral Roberts is 27 in ORtg, and averages 82 points per game.
- Implosive defenses: While both these teams score at an incredibly high rate per 100 possessions, they both give up a large number of points per 100 possessions. The Golden Eagles are 246th in the NCAA in DRtg while giving up 76 points per game, and the Buckeyes are 269th in the NCAA in DRtg while giving up 71 points per game. ORU plays at a quicker pace with more possessions but Ohio State gives up more points per 100 possessions.
5 things that would lead to an Oral Roberts victory
- Max Abmas goes off: In 2012 Lehigh guard CJ McCollum went off for 30 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists as 15th seeded Lehigh shocked 2 seed Duke in the first round of the NCAA tournament. McCollum averaged 21.9 points in what was his junior year and has become a household name in the NBA. Enter Abmas who led the NCAA with 24.4 points per game this season. If the electric guard has a McCollum-type game, the Buckeyes better be careful.
- Oral Roberts defends: In 4 halves during the Summit League tournament Oral Roberts defended as well as they had all season. In those 4 halves, Oral Roberts showed how dangerous they can be. Winning comfortably against North Dakota and taking comfortable 1st half leads vs South Dakota State and North Dakota State. ORU will need that consistent defensive effort to give themselves a chance against the Buckeyes.
- Those not named Abmas and Obanor hit shots: Oral Roberts led the NCAA in made 3 point shots and was 8th in 3 point percentage. Ohio State’s 3 point defense was 217th in opponent 3 point makes and 210th in opponent 3 point percentage. If season-long trends hold true the Golden Eagles could be in this one.
- Kevin Obanor on defense: Oral Roberts star forward is likely matched up with Ohio State’s star forward EJ Liddell. Two things. Obanor needs to be defensively sound to limit Liddell and do so without fouling. Every game in the Summit League tournament Obanor was in foul trouble, it is critical this does not happen against Ohio State. The rest of the nation doesn’t know this yet but Obanor is every bit the athlete Liddell is. A sound defensive performance by him changes this game.
- Refer to 1-4 again: It’s unlikely all of 1-4 happen, but if they do Roberts moves on. This is not hyperbole. If Abmas has a special game, the Golden Eagles defend for 40 minutes, players like Weaver, Thompson, Lacis, and Jurgens hit shots, and Obanor is sound defensively, ORU wins this game.
What Happens
The chance of all the things above happening is pretty slim. My belief is there is about a 30% chance ORU wins. This is historically very high for a two seed. Some of this is just the incredibly special duo in Obanor and Abmas, along with the other gifted scorers on this Oral Roberts squad. Ultimately though, Ohio State is a two seed for a reason. The gifted team that has been in battles all season, navigating the Big 10. At the half, this is a 5 point game or less, and ORU might even lead but I see the second half going the way of the Oral Roberts game against Arkansas. Where Ohio State digs in like Arkansas did and pulls ahead of Oral Roberts. I will say though Arkansas is a much better defensive team than Ohio State.
Ohio State 79 Oral Roberts 72