Well North Dakota fans, we have made it to the final week of the season. A long journey that started in early November is to soon come to a close.
Both UND Men and Women’s basketball have a LOT to play for this weekend in terms of seeding. So lets get down to some scenarios that could play out for both teams.
Before we do: There is 1 ground rule
- We are going to keep this simple (there are many different scenarios that could play out here, but for the sake of the writer and the reader, we are going to follow the K.I.S.S principle).
So lets start the insanity
UND Women Scenarios
Current situation: tied for 2nd place with an 10-6 conference record with NDSU. 2 games ahead of ORU and USD. UND can be anywhere from a 2 seed to a 4 seed in Sioux Falls.
2nd seed scenarios
These two scenarios are the best case scenario for UND, getting the 2 seed and avoiding any first round matchup with ORU or USD. This would also mean playing Saturday vs Sunday (and getting the Sunday off).
Scenario #1
- UND finishes with a better record than NDSU on the road trip
Easiest path to success. Either UND wins two and NDSU splits. Or UND splits and NDSU gets swept. Either way, they get the 2.
Scenario #2
- UND and NDSU finishes with the same record
- ORU loses to SDSU
- USD loses to ORU and KC
- DU beats Omaha
This is the more complicated scenario for UND. UND and NDSU finish with the same record. ORU loses to SDSU means they can’t get to 10 wins, and USD losing both ORU and KC means they finish 8-10. Now DU beating Omaha get them to 9-9 and has them finishing ahead of USD. Which means that UND gets the tiebreaker because of a better record against DU (2-0 vs 1-1).
3rd seed scenarios
In these scenarios, UND gets the 3rd seed and still stays on the opposite side of SDSU, but increases the chances of getting ORU or USD in a round 1 matchup. This would also mean a Sunday matchup and would mean playing 3 games in 3 days.
Scenario #1
- NDSU finishes with a better record against UND
- ORU loses to SDSU or USD
An ORU loss means that they can’t pass UND in the standings. USD cant pass UND because UND beat NDSU while USD didn’t, so it doesn’t matter what they do. NDSU goes better on the road trip that UND
Scenario #2
- UND and NDSU finish with same record
- ORU loses to USD or SDSU
If UND and the Bison tie, UND needs ORU to lose to either USD or SDSU to avoid a 3 way tie. Once again, USD can’t pass either NDSU or UND if they win out (NDSU would get the 2 due to a 3-1 record, UND breaks tie due to NDSU win).
4th seed scenarios
These two scenarios put UND in the worst case scenario, on the same side as SDSU as the 4 seed.
Scenario #1
- UND gets swept on the road
- ORU sweep USD and SDSU
- NDSU wins one game
It would take a near perfect storm for this to occur, namly UND losing twice and ORU sweeping the SoDak schools. Not impossible, but highly, highly unlikely. NDSU only would need to win one game to clinch the 2 seed.
Scenario #2
- UND and NDSU get swept on the road
- ORU sweeps USD and SDSU
- USD beat KC
- DU loses to Omaha
What if the Bison get swept as well? Well this is where things get complicated so bare with me. In a 3 way tie with ORU, each team has a 2-2 record against the other. So the next tiebreaker would be records against other opponents. This goes in descening order. In this scenario, ORU would get the two seed due to their win against SDSU. Then NDSU and UND would be battling for the 3rd seed. The tie would then break when they get to USD because NDSU swept USD while UND only split, thus giving NDSU a 3 seed and UND the 4.
Again, even more unlikely scenario but this is the absolute worst case scenario.
UND Men Scenarios
The Men has more scenarios that can happen and they have a wide variety of ranges. They could be as high as a 6 seed but as low as the 10 seed.
6th Seed Scenario
- UND beats WIU and UST
- KC loses to USD and SDSU
- USD beats KC and loses to ORU
In this scenario, UND, KC, and USD are all tied at 7-11. UND gets the tiebreaker due to a 3-1 record against KC and USD.
7th Seed Scenario
- UND beats WIU and UST
- USD loses to KC and ORU
In this scenario, UND would pass USD in the standings and while they still would be in the Friday games, would avoid see ORU in the quarterfinals. Plus would play Sunday to get a day of rest.
8th Seed Scenario
- UND beats UST but losts WIU
- DU loses to Omaha
- USD beat KC
- KC beats SDSU
Easiest way for UND to get to the 8th seed. They get one win and DU loses to Omaha.
9th Seed Scenario
- UND loses to WIU and UST
- DU beats Omaha
In this scenario, UND splits against WIU and UST, while DU takes down Omaha.
10th Seed Scenario
- UND loses to WIU and UST
- Omaha beats DU
- WIU finishes ahead of KC in the standings
The worst case scenario: UND gets swept while Omaha beats DU. This would cause a 3 way tie for the 8th seed. Omaha would get the 8th based on a 3-1 record against UND and DU. The 9th seed between UND and DU would go to DU based on the fact that DU beat Western while UND would lose both to WIU. So Western needs to finish higher that KC.
These are NOT all of the scenarios at play and some of these will go away after Thursdays action. This would give you an idea of what to expect going into play on Thursday.