The University of St. Thomas Men’s Basketball Team is entering the final stretch of the season controlling their own destiny as far as Summit League seeding goes.
UST, at 9-7, are in 3rd place, with their opponents tomorrow, the North Dakota State Bison in 4th. A game behind them is the 8-8 WIU Leathernecks, who are also in ND this week.
Bottom Line: If UST wins both games, they secure the three seed. There are exactly 8 permutations of final standings for seeds 3-5, and an even greater combination of first round opponents for those seeds entering this weekend. There are two questions I am going to get the answer to this weekend:
1.) Can UST Avoid the Dakota Teams In their first game of the Summit League Tournament?
It is UST’s first trip to any single elimination tournament since March 2020. They have played well in their MTE’s over the last two seasons. However, their record in general in the Dakotas against the Dakota schools is not great. On the biggest stage for their first game, it’d be helpful to have Omaha, Denver, or UMKC, and play a Dakota school later with a game under their belt. The alternative is to face a weekend first round game with a hostile crowd of the many thousand Yote or Bison faithful. Practically, what that means is that this weekend UMKC needs to take care of business against the Yotes, as well as UST beating the Bison.
2.) Has UST’s recent defensive improvement fully translated to road games?
It should be said first that winning four of their last five on the road is impressive. In the last three wins, UST has played their 3 best games of defense all season, including once on the road against UMKC in that blowout. Which contrasted further back, UST on the road against 7th ranked South Dakota gave up 92 in their loss back in December. More recently, they allowed 83 against Omaha. This is a positive sign of improving on defense at the right time. In Fargo is a perfect place to show that improvement against the best big man in the Summit League. Controlling UND on Saturday also is important to see if UST can keep up a defensive consistency in their final regular season game before Sioux Falls.
GAME PREVIEWS
St. Thomas @ North Dakota State (-3) Feb 23, 2023
UST is going for their biggest season sweep of the season against the Bison. In the first matchup, Grant Nelson was held to 15 points, which he has exceeded in all but 3 games since then. Big Game Grant is going to make an appearance, and make his impact felt on the glass. NDSU, unsurprisingly, with him and Andrew Morgan are number 6 in the country at preventing opponents from scooping offensive boards. Last time around UST won with small ball, finding the right matchups against a top heavy talent wise NDSU roster. UST also took taking advantage of +6 possessions provided off of turnovers. You’d be hard pressed to find a game that means more this season, as it is essentially for the 3 seed. Parker Bjorklund had a great game last time around however, I think Riley Miller is going to take advantage this time around, as he was able to find quality shots the first time around, with the amount of attention Dave Richman is going to put on Bjorklund and Andrew Rohde.
St. Thomas @ North Dakota Feb. 25, 2023
The final away game of both last season, and this season is in Grand Forks, North Dakota. The Fighting Hawks have, similar to St. Thomas, won four of their last five games. Their only loss in that stretch was a three point loss to Summit League Regular Season Champion Oral Roberts. They have fought and clawed to five conference wins wins. UST is catching UND playing their best basketball of the season just in time for the tournament. North Dakota shoots a lot of three pointers, and have so far relied on high scoring games of 80 or higher in order to get wins. They shoot regularly over 32 three pointers a game. They also get absolutely torched inside the arc on defense. St. Thomas being a much more efficient shooting team, and especially with the Tommie prowess guarding the perimeter makes the North Dakota matchup very favorable. Where UST may get in trouble is if 45% 3 point shooter Matt Norman or 6-6 Freshman Treysen Eaglestaff are able to find windows and make shots.
Plus 3
1.) St. Thomas’s 2024 recruiting picked up steam, and it appears that John Tauer’s goal is to assemble the best of Brookfield Central by extending an offer on Feb. 17 to Jack Daugherty. He would join Ben Nau and Andrew Rohde as Brookfield Central Rep’s on St. Thomas. Alexandria’s Grayson Grove received an offer as well this past Saturday.
2.) Ahjany Lee had his best performance of the season with 14 points and 3 blocks against Western IL. He has been a menace to SDSU this season, and could be an important X factor if and when UST matches up against them this season. It is very good to see his growth coming off the bench.
3.) UST is now 8th in the country in FT%, which come a close game in Sioux Falls could be a difference maker. This is a team that has kept it close with every team at some point, and has the tools to make a run in Sioux Falls.
Prediction
NDSU-74 UST-78
UST-70 UND-62